December 23, 2012
Christmas is coming and the Goose is getting fat… So let’s indulge in a little speculation shall we?
Rather than doing the standard 2013 predictions – I am going to go for the 2017 predictions. I have been watching the usual end of year stuff. I like IBM’s 5 in 5 idea. There are some interesting trends that can be established. For this year go and read CNN’s take . What is interesting is to see how they handle the projections they get wrong. The future is easy to predict – its the timing that’s the hard stuff.
I also enjoy TED.com and the images of the near future. One that has had me thinking is that of the artist Neil Harbisson. .
So my thesis is that we should start to think about the future in 5-7 years time. I am of the opinion that we far too often focus on the hear and now. Admirable but not necessarily good for mankind. I like to think that we can use the tools in front of us to create the future.
So here is my one big prediction for 2017. Our computer/Human interface (HMI human machine interface) will no longer be defined by screens. It will be an immersive experience. It will accommodate visual and at least one other sense. Sound is already with us. However the interaction will cease to feel unnatural. it will become natural as we adopt HMI into our daily lives.
In my view this will remove the barrier and at the same time create a series of actual problems. For non-autonomous systems – ie those dependent on the cloud – the interruption will cause their systems to fail. I believe that this will be resolved and that semi-autonomous systems developed originally by the military will become normal.
Is this reasonable?
time will tell. But its definitely worth thinking about