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Posts tagged ‘predictions’

Digitial Ad Growth Powering Ahead – But Why?

November 16, 2013

VaultPad

Google is laughing all the way to the bank (once again) and those other folk – Facebook, Twitter, Linked in are all smiling broadly too. The number from SIG on Digital Ad growth in the last quarter would make anyone smile – if you were one of the companies. However I am perplexed at the growth in Social ad spending because I dont think it is justified.

I have a belief that a lot of this is good money chasing bad as people dont really understand Social and no decent performance metrics for Social spend are yet out there to accurately reflect the effectiveness of Ad spend on Social.

I encourage you to read the report (Link below).ec2b9b14-ca8b-4c45-855f-bbc3460428b8

It certainly makes for interesting reading but I hope those who are opening their wallets to Social and closing them to traditional advertising REALLY know what they are doing because if not – some media will go away and we will be left with a ton of schlock stuff.

Cheers

 

How Well Do Predictions Work – a Review of 2012

December 29, 2012

VaultPad

Each year the team at TNooz does a series of predictions. This coming year the focus is on Mobile, surprising since I think we are already there. It is one of the most popular series the team does.

But how well did we do for 2012? The TNooz predictions for 2012 were not that bad. But in the interests of a true public service – perhaps a bit of self flagellation is in order.

First what did I predict?
1. User experience hits home

I predict that the current dissatisfaction with user experience with travel brands on the web will accelerate in 2012. In fact, I believe that we will start using the term “consumer fatigue”.

This will have a massive impact on web search and shopping for other products, but it will hit travel hard as the current processes and widget-based explicit interaction are really rather awful.

2. Cash for cache

The process of availability cache creation will start to cause significant issues. Owners of inventory will effectively start charging for the access to an “approved” state of availability.

This will cause significant problems for the metasearch or search companies in the travel industry

HOW DID I DO

1. User Experience. Oh yes. Decidedly this has happened. Some hard data shows that users are moving away from the conventional UX particularly in mobile. Mobile search has also proved to be an obstacle to “sellers” and users alike.  I will give myself 7/10 marks for this one. It is a slow burn and one that will happen over time. The problem is that the manifestation of it will come in different ways. While its not cited as the reason – I believe that a large part of IATA’s NDC effort has now focused on the Users ability to provide information via the intermediary channel to the supply community.

The issue of handling the ocean of data and how we access it is not going to get easier. Big Data tools are slowly making it better but we still have no trust (or rather not enough trust) in what we are seeing. Essentially we dont trust machine results enough to rely on them.

2. The battle over cache, Again a behind the scenes battle and one that will continue for a long time. Part of the problems with transactional sites is that they need to work on cache for performance. As users have little to no trust in the results anyway – web site performance matters more than accuracy and quality of results. Its logical. If the site doesn’t perform fast enough then users bail out of the process and click away before even analyzing the results. In the case of the airlines – this is endemic driven by the airlines’ need for obfuscation of the price. In the case of hotels – it is natural given the complexity and multiple models of the accommodation market. However I will only give myself 5/10 for this one. Its there but I can’t demonstrate that it has proved to be as important as I think. Trust me though behind the scenes this one is a 9/10.

So how will I do in 2013? A good question. Let’s see.
Cheers

Timothy

2017 Here we come!

December 23, 2012

VaultPad

Christmas is coming and the Goose is getting fat… So let’s indulge in a little speculation shall we?

Rather than doing the standard 2013 predictions – I am going to go for the 2017 predictions. I have been watching the usual end of year stuff. I like IBM’s 5  in 5 idea. There are some interesting trends that can be established. For this year go and read CNN’s take . What is interesting is to see how they handle the projections they get wrong. The future is easy to predict – its the timing that’s the hard stuff.

I also enjoy TED.com and the images of the near future. One that has had me thinking is that of the artist Neil Harbisson. .

So my thesis is that we should start to think about the future in 5-7 years time. I am of the opinion that we far too often focus on the hear and now. Admirable but not necessarily good for mankind. I like to think that we can use the tools in front of us to create the future.

So here is my one big prediction for 2017. Our computer/Human interface (HMI human machine interface) will no longer be defined by screens. It will be an immersive experience. It will accommodate visual and at least one other sense. Sound is already with us. However the interaction will cease to feel unnatural. it will become natural as we adopt HMI into our daily lives.

In my view this will remove the barrier and at the same time create a series of actual problems. For non-autonomous systems – ie those dependent on the cloud – the interruption will cause their systems to fail. I believe that this will be resolved and that semi-autonomous systems developed originally by the military will become normal.

Is this reasonable?

time will tell. But its definitely worth thinking about

Cheers